Monday, January 11, 2016

I Can Take Anything Seriously

Shoot Interviews and the Emerging Oral History of American Professional Wrestling
Keenan Salla, Department of History, IUPUI
        Before the 1990s, American professional wrestling had by and large managed to maintain the fictional reality of “kayfabe” in the eyes of the public. With its origins in the carnival lingo of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, kayfabe was and is the term for the framework of logic and storytelling under which professional wrestling operates. The idea that the matches are legitimate athletic performances and that the portrayed feuds within the sport are real are part of the kayfabe reality. Although fans had been more or less clued into the illegitimacy of wrestling as a pure sport since the early 20th century, wrestlers and promoters were known to become extremely defensive when questioned about the sport’s legitimacy. Most notably reporter John Stossel was assaulted by wrestler David Schultz on December 28, 1984 while attempting to question the wrestler about the sport’s authenticity. While the audience and the non-viewing public had questioned, derided or played along with kayfabe to varying degrees throughout the 20th century, the business itself did not completely acknowledge the predetermined nature of its matches until Vince McMahon Jr. sought to escape the rules and regulations of state athletic commissions in the 1980s[1].  Even then the fiction was largely maintained by the fact that the World Wrestling Entertainment marketed to children, rather than adults.
        This would change dramatically during the 1991 steroid trial that saw wrestling personalities such as Vince McMahon Jr. and Hulk Hogan take the stand and admit to the predetermined nature of wrestling on the national stage. Occurring in the early days of the 24 hour cable news cycle, the trial brought widespread attention to the real-life side of the wrestling business for the first time. While McMahon had been referring to his business as sports entertainment as opposed to professional wrestling for most of the past decade, the WWE still went to great lengths to protect kayfabe. In a notable example, WWE fired wrestlers “Hacksaw” Jim Duggan and The Iron Sheik in 1987 after they were pulled over with drugs in their vehicle, not because of the legal or drug problems, but because a “babyface” (heroic wrestler) and “heel” (villainous wrestler) we caught traveling together despite being kayfabe enemies. After the steroid trial, nearly allpretense of the kayfabe reality was dropped outside of the arena. While wrestlers would still generally travel in character with the appropriate heel or babyface companions, interviews with the media grew increasingly more candid.
        Coinciding with the weakening of kayfabe was the rise of connected and engaged national professional wrestling fandom. Prior to the Internet and the rise of the national promotions, wrestling had been largely regionally focused under the National Wrestling Alliance territory system. As most of these regional promotions were only broadcast locally and never recorded for commercial release, fans that were interested in seeing matches from other promotions had to set up tape trading schemes to view them. Initially the community centered around wrestling newsletters and magazines such as Wrestling Observer and Pro Wrestling Illustrated. However, this growing and increasingly connected network of fans would eventually support not only wrestling events themselves, but also conventions and demand for the creation of recorded “shoot interviews.”
Form and organization of oral history in the wrestling community
The shoot interview is a long-form, candid interview with an employee of the wrestling business. While wrestlers themselves are the most common subjects of these interviews, referees, managers, promoters and bookers have also been interviewed. The term “shoot” is wrestling lingo for a real event, essentially the opposite of the term kayfabe. A “shoot match” is a legitimate grappling contest, while a “shoot promo” is a short interview given as part of the wrestling performance that airs real backstage grievances. Shoot interviews are unique among sports and theatre media because they transgress against the concept of kayfabe. As there is no other entertainment in which the performers so consistently maintain their characters these interviews break down barriers and imply an intimacy that is non-existent in a typical celebrity interview. Because of this intimacy, shoot interviews tend to be much more in depth and personal than the short form interviews common in mainstream news and entertainment media. While wrestlers had previously spoken somewhat candidly in the media about the business and would continue to, these mainstream interviews are not nearly as long, in-depth or insightful as the interviews carried out by and for wrestling fans. Because of the typical conducting fan’s in-depth knowledge of the business the interviews skip over the common questions asked by the mainstream media to discuss issues of interest to the most informed fans. The vital roles of both the conductors and wrestlers in shoot interviews gives both of those actors in the business an important opportunity to add their voices to the historical narrative of professional wrestling. This makes the shoot interview and similar media an invaluable biographical and historical resource for those interested in the lives of specific performers and the wider the business of professional wrestling.
The first shoot interview was performed by wrestler Eddie Gilbert and conducted by lawyer and wrestling fan Bob Barnett in 1993. Gilbert had been active in the business as both a wrestler and booker[2] since 1979, working in many of the nation’s largest promotions. Titled “Looking for Mr. Gilbert” the nearly two hour long interview covers the wrestler’s health, how and why he entered the wrestling business, his opinions of other wrestlers and promoters in the business, favorite performances, backstage pranks and general gossip[3]. The interview would act as a template in the future, with many of the same lines of questioning recurring in interviews up to the present day. For long form interviews questioning often begins with the wrestler’s health. While this may be considered a matter of politeness in other interviews, with wrestlers this often begins a long description of physical injuries either currently suffered or recently recovered from.  In many cases it also elicits a description of the wrestler’s recent struggles with drug and alcohol abuse. Following the discussion of their health, focus generally moves toward their life story, specifically noting the influences that drew them towards professional wrestling.  After this the order of questioning varies but often covers topics such as their work in the ring, life on the road, backstage politics and their relationships with other wrestlers and promoters.
Even with the loosening of adherence to kayfabe Gilbert’s interview was still somewhat controversial in its time and some promoters would refuse to work with wrestlers that broke kayfabe. Because of this most of the wrestlers interviewed in the early 1990s had either already been rejected by the large promotions or were comfortable with their places on the independent circuit. However, by the early 2000s the informed fan community had grown greatly throughinternet message boards, forums and websites. With demand for the interviews increasing and the corresponding profit to be made, even the WWE would adopt the format for certain productions.
Almost completely by accident the typical setup and execution of the shoot interview corresponds to many, but certainly not all, of the Oral History Association’s “Principles and Best Practices[4]” As the interviews are commonly a business transaction with the wrestler receiving either a flat fee or a percentage of the video’s sales, the interviews do not conform to the principles of distribution held by the association. Many recent interviews are only available for purchase from their producers, however dozens have become freely available on video sharing sites like YouTube. Despite their commercial motivations, conductors tend to be devoted fans themselves and as such are highly informed and motivated to produce new and interesting content.
The interviews are often set up through prior correspondence although sometimes they occur on short notice when an interested fan encounters a willing wrestler at an event or convention. The interviews are commonly conducted in quiet hotel rooms near an event that the wrestler was traveling to in any case, with the interviewer meeting them in transit. The interviews are performed according to the availability of the wrestler and the wrestlers are usually given as much time as they like to discuss a given topic, with most interviews ranging from one to three hours in duration. Questions tend to be either open-ended to draw out the stories that thewrestler considers important or very specific to cover topics of interest to conductor or the fan community. As the conductors are rarely interested in damaging their reputations amongst potential interviewees, discussion is rarely directed into areas that the wrestler does not feel comfortable with.  While some interviews may delve into salacious gossip that may damage the reputations of other performers, wrestlers are often wary of disparaging those they may have to work with in the future. This careful and comprehensive conduct of the interviews makes them viable for use as historical sources. However, researchers should keep in mind that the shoot interview offers only that individual’s perspective on events and that different wrestlers discussing the same events can often reach different conclusions. Shoot interviews should be considered authoritative only as the opinion and perspective of the wrestler in question although events corroborated by a number of different unrelated wrestlers can be considered to be accurate for the most part.
The shoot interview has also had a significant impact on the other types of media produced by and for wrestlers and wrestling fans. Short-form shoot interviews offer a mixture of the long format and the typical new interview. Generally focused on current events in the business, these segments are the backbone of internet wrestling news outlets such as WrestletalkTV and What Culture Wrestling. Internet podcasts have also become a valuable source of the oral history of wrestling.  In addition to a number of fan podcasts that discuss the past and present state of the business, wrestling personalities, lead by the manager/booker/promoter Jim Cornette and wrestler “Stone Cold” Steve Austin, were some of the earliest and most successful celebrity podcast creators. While these podcasts can vary greatly in content depending on the desires of their producers, candid one-on-one interviews with other wrestling personalities make up the majority of the format. Wrestler’s podcasts in particular are notable as historical sources because the content and character of the programs lies in the hands of the wrestlers themselves, offering an unmatched perspective on in-ring performance, the daily life of the professional wrestler and the backstage events in the business.
Besides their value as historical sources themselves, these interviews also evidence a rich oral tradition shared by the wrestling community among performer and fan alike. Many wrestlers maintain that one of the ways they learned the most about the business and performance of wrestling was traveling via car from show to show with more experienced wrestlers, demonstrating a vital role for this tradition in the business. In addition to this informal process of instruction, second and third hand stories focusing on the some of the outsized personalities and humorous or harrowing events in the business are often shared by wrestlers. Nearly mythic stories of Andre the Giant’s drinking and eating habits and Tonga 'Uli'uli Fifita’s[5], real-life toughness and indomitable fighting skill are shared even by younger wrestlers that never had a chance to work or travel with the men. The sexual reputations of certain wrestlers and female valets are frequently discussed although often circumspectly. Among contemporary wrestlers the best example is a story, or rather combination of stories, known as “The Plane Ride from Hell.”
The plane ride in question occurred on May 5, 2002. Rather than being presented as a single story, aspects of the plane ride have been recounted from the perspectives of a number of different actors. Events on the flight included an airplane aisle shoot wrestling match between veteran grappler “Mr. Perfect” Curt Hennig and a young Brock Lesnar that lead to Henning’s firing weeks later, Dustin “Goldust” Runnels serenading his ex-wife Terri Runnels, road agent Michael “P.S.” Hayes punching John “Bradshaw” Layfield and Sean “X-Pac” Waltman shaving off Hayes’ mullet in retaliation for his obnoxious behavior while the agent was asleep. With tales of legitimate physical confrontation, social embarrassment and practical jokes gone too far, the story of the plane ride includes many of the common elements of wrestling stories all contained in a single event.  As travelling stories are often a major component of wrestling interviews, it is unsurprising that telling and retelling the events on the infamous plane ride has become commonplace for those involved.
Even with all the historical value apparent in shoot interviews and similar media, they have gone virtually untouched in academia. While the ethnographic method and its accompanying interviews have been used to great effect by many researchers such as Jim Freedman and Sharon Mazer, these commercially produced interviews have been disregarded as a potential source. While the integral role of the fandom has been acknowledged in the academic interpretation of professional wrestling since the 1970s, only recently has the agency and influence of the wrestlers themselves on the form begun to be widely understood and discussed. This makes the interviews an unmatched and untapped resource for cultural and labor histories of the sport. Besides informing these fields of study interviews often discuss the backstage politics and financial troubles of many wrestling promotions, particularly when the interviewed wrestler worked as a booker or agent for the promotion and as such are immensely valuable in company histories. Wrestlers’ opinions on the current and past states of in-ring performance are also frequently discussed, making the interviews a fascinating resource for those interested in the interpretation of matches in sport and performance history. To illustrate exactly how these interviews act as historical sources the latter half of this essay will discuss a variety of specific interviews and how those interviews can shape and inform future scholarship.
Examples of Professional Wrestling Oral History
        Our first example will be Ring of Honor Production’s “Straight Shootin’ with Jim Cornette and Percy Pringle III[6],” conducted on October 3, 2005.  Produced by the mid-sized wrestling promotion Ring of Honor, the “Straight Shootin’” series would see interviews with many of the veterans of the business that passed through the promotion. Many would be conducted by Cornette, who worked for the promotion as a booker. One of the most enduring and well-known out-of-the-ring performers in the sport, Cornette had acted as a manager, agent, booker, commentator and promoter in a career spanning five decades and several wrestling promotions. Although best known as the tennis racket wielding, cowardly, “mama’s boy” manager for the tag team Midnight Express in the 1980s and 90s Cornette would later become known as “The King of the Shoot Interview” for his forthright and unfettered interview style, never shying away from giving his honest, and often abrasive, opinion about other performers in the business. This reputation lead to Cornette being highly sought after for interviews and Question and Answer sessions at fan conventions. He decided to capitalize on his talents in the form of The Jim Cornette Experience, one of the first wrestling podcasts hosted by someone in the wrestling business. While Cornette would contribute to and comment on many of the stories in the interview, it largely focuses on Percy Pringle III. 
        Percy Pringle III was born William Alvin Moody and was best known as Paul Bearer, the manager for supernaturally themed WWE wrestlers the Undertaker and Kane. Like Cornette, Pringle had also had a long career in the business. Beginning as a wrestler himself in the late 1970s he moved to managing in the southeastern wrestling promotions under the name Percival Pringle III in the early 1980s. Pringle reduced his involvement in the business to support his young children in the early 1980s by becoming a mortician but returned to the business full time by 1984. In the early 1990s he began depicting the role of Paul Bearer for the WWE, which would be his most successful and enduring character.
        Over the course of the three hour interview Cornette and Pringle discuss a wide variety of topics. As Pringle had already performed a pair of interviews for the promotion where he spoke in depth about his childhood, his entry into the wrestling business and course of his career, this interview takes the form of a conversation between two old friends rather than a tightly scripted and conducted experience. The conversation begins on a lighter note with a discussion of “ribs,” or practical jokes among the wrestlers backstage. After mentioning that the contemporary environment of the business doesn’t allow for these practical jokes in the way that it used to, Cornette and Percy share some of their favorites. These include retellings of Sean Waltman’s defecations on or in the property of widely disliked female performers Sunny and Sable and the never before told story of the Undertaker’s irrational disgust towards cucumbers and the ribs born from that. Following this, Cornette and Pringle move on to share their opinions of underappreciated talents in the business such as announcer Howard Finkel and wrestler Kane (Glen Jacobs) and overrated talents such as WWE television producer Kevin Dunn and female wrestler Sable. As a historic source much of the valuable material here is subtextual, as Cornette and Pringle describe both the brotherhood and acrimony that goes on backstage, providing insight into the backstage culture of the business.
        Another interesting aspect of the interview that is unusual for the medium is Pringle’s ability to drop easily in and out of his Paul Bearer character. While shoot interviews are generally focused on reality as opposed to kayfabe, here Pringle as Paul Bearer gives us the untold story of how the Undertaker and Kane’s mother seduced the fictional mortician who is the father of both wrestlers in kayfabe. As the story would be considered too adult to be told on WWE television programs, this type of unsanctioned interview is one of the few places such storytelling can occur.
        From this point the interview starts to focus more directly on Pringle himself as he discusses his struggles with obesity, his poor backstage treatment and his wife’s battle with cancer. Perhaps the most fascinating part of the interview for those interested in the operations of the business is the discussion of the difficulties of working in the “Gorilla Position.” The Gorilla Position, so named for legendary wrestler, agent and commentator Gorilla Monsoon is a spot just inside the curtains of the entrance ramp where a road agent or booker is generally stationed and given the responsibility of organizing the wrestlers before they make their entrances. The position is vitally important to ensuring the smooth flow of live events, making sure that the wrestlers are present, informed of their responsibilities in the show and performing their entrances at precisely the correct time. Both Pringle and Cornette had the responsibility of the position at various points in their careers, and both found it incredibly stressful. These discussions on the often overlooked backstage work of professional wrestling make this interview a valuable resource for those interested in the works of the manager, booker or agent.         
*        *        *        *
        Brian Kendrick and Paul London have proven to be extremely popular shoot interview subjects among the wrestling fan community. While conductors often seek out the most famous or deeply involved wrestlers in the business, the popularity of London and Kendrick’s interviews demonstrate that fans are interested in every level of the business. With largely parallel career paths, London and Kendrick have both performed in the WWE but never rose out of the mid-card[7], briefly reigning together as tag-team champions. Most of their careers have been spent on the North American independent circuit and in international promotions. Having grown comfortable and successful within their niche, London and Kendrick are known for their outspoken criticism of the WWE training system and the culture of the promotion, while most young wrestlers are afraid to criticise the promotion out of fear of losing their chance at stardom.
        In this interview filmed in 2010 for the wrestling merchandise website Highspots.com the tag team discusses coming up in the business in the late 1990s post-territory era and their experiences learning the dual arts of wrestling and self-promotion. Titled “Brian Kendrick and Paul London’s Excellent Adventure,” the interview discusses their careers from their training at the Texas Wrestling Academy up through the present day. As a source for the labor history of professional wrestling, training and career path stories are invaluable and demonstrate significant changes in the way wrestlers have learned the trade since the days of the territory system. For  cultural history one of most interesting topics is that of “Wrestler’s Court,” or the informal tribunal that would take place in the WWE locker room to settle disputes among the workers, generally presided over by veteran The Undertaker. As social history the interview provides the most extensive discussion of the much rumored love triangle between Paul London, valet Ashley Massaro and wrestler Matt Hardy. In addition to the typical discussion of ribs, traveling and their opinions on wrestlers and the current state of the business, these specific topics make this interview of interest to any researcher seeking information about the modern era of professional wrestling.
*        *        *        *
        Jake “The Snake” Roberts and “Rowdy” Roddy Piper were some of the most famous wrestlers of the 1980s. Piper worked in a number of territories throughout the 70s and 80s, eventually landing in the WWF and become one of the promotion’s top heel characters, frequently feuding against the likes of Hulk Hogan and Macho Man Randy Savage. A long time host of the kayfabe interview segment Piper’s Pit on WWE programming, Piper was known for his promo and interview skills. After retiring from the WWE Piper would start his own wrestling podcast named after his kayfabe interview segment. Roberts’ wrestling career followed much the same path, only a few years behind Piper’s progression. At the end of Roberts’ career he struggled with drug and alcohol addiction. While many contemporary wrestlers were heavy users of cocaine, prescription painkillers and alcohol, Roberts’ crack cocaine habit became infamous in the business and eventually lead to his release by the WWE and an effective end to his wrestling career in the mid 1990s. Although the story of his addiction and recovery was later told in the documentary The Resurrection of Jake the Snake, his 2014 appearance on the sixth episode of the Piper’s Pit[8] podcast would be one of the first times he spoke at length about his abusive childhood and how it contributed to his struggles with substance abuse.
        Roberts’ father was wrestler Grizzly Smith, and was fairly well known in the late 1960s in the NWA. Roberts states that Smith was forced to marry his mother when she was only 12 after he raped her while dating Roberts’ maternal grandmother, resulting in Jake’s conception. Roberts also states that Smith insisted on the reality of professional wrestling even in the privacy of his own home, going so far as to wear a neck brace to convince his children. This severely traumatized Roberts, and after he understood the reality of wrestling he always heavily resented his father for convincing him that he was undergoing terrible pain and suffering on a nightly basis. He blames his father’s actions for both his own substance abuse issues and his sister’s mental illness.
        The short lives of wrestlers have recently come under a great deal of scrutiny by fans and journalists. While the tragic story of the Von Erich family is one of the most famous and commonly discussed examples, many wrestlers struggle with untreated mental illness, steroid abuse, illegal and prescription drug abuse and alcohol abuse. Statistics websitefivethirtyeight demonstrated[9] that over one third of Wrestlemania VI’s card had died by 2014, a mortality rate significantly higher than the public or other professional athletes. However, study of exactly why and how so many wrestlers have died at a young age has only just begun, most notably in David Shoemaker’s The Squared Circle[10], which was born from his Grantland column Dead Wrestler of the Week. While Shoemaker provides descriptions of the troubled lives of many performers, he does not delve into the qualities of professional wrestling that give rise to such a high mortality rate. Future scholarship will find interviews such as Roberts’ on Piper’s Pit invaluable when attempting to determine the cause and effects of this phenomenon.
*        *        *        *
        Although certainly inspired by the shoot interview, “Stone Cold” Steve Austin’s commentary[11] on his Wrestlemania X-7 (2001) match with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is strictly a monologue. The first WWE star to produce his own podcast, Austin has found tremendous success within the genre and revitalized his career after his in-ring work was cut short by a series of severe neck injuries. As the focus of Austin’s interviews with other wrestlers tend towards questions of in-ring action and ring psychology[12], it was unsurprising when his fans asked him via social media to provide live commentary for one of his most famous matches.
        The Rock/Austin match is widely considered the peak of the WWE’s “Attitude Era,” or the period at the turn of the 21st century when competition between the WWE, WCW and ECW propelled professional wrestling back into the popular culture spotlight. The Rock and Austin were unquestionably the biggest stars of their era and their match at the seventeenth Wrestlemania was eagerly awaited by fans. In Austin’s commentary he explains the decision making process that lead to the match, the choices made by the wrestlers during the match and provides his opinions of the match and its aftermath. As Austin was responsible for calling the match, he is uniquely qualified to explain the process to the fan community. His commentary provides a unique insight into how a wrestling match is planned, constructed and executed in the ring. One of the most famous elements of the match is that while it was billed and performed as a face vs. face match, Austin made an unexpected “heel turn[13]” at the match’s conclusion. He did this by accepting the aid of the hated Mr. McMahon, Vince McMahon’s onscreen evil authoritarian persona, which he had feuded with extensively over the preceding years. In the match commentary Austin expresses deep regret for this turn, which would lead to a dead-end storyline that drew little fan attention. With its extensive explanation of ring psychology, match booking and reflection on the impact of the match, Austin’s commentary is an excellent resource for those interested in the interpretation and performance history of professional wrestling matches.

Conclusion
        This essay has demonstrated the massive and untapped potential of wrestling’s oral history as a primary source in academic study of the sport. From cultural history, to labor history, to company history to performance studies, almost any school of thought or perspective on the business would benefit greatly by referring to these sources as both inspiration and information. While these interviews cannot and should not be considered absolutely authoritative due to the nature of memory and the interests of the interviewed, at the very least they provide perspective on events directly from those who were involved or witnessed the occurrence. Perhaps the most important aspect of these interviews is that they give voice to two communities that have been inadequately examined by academia: wrestling fans and wrestlers themselves.

[1] Hornbaker, Tim. Capitol Revolution: The Rise of the McMahon Wrestling Empire. Toronto, Ontario: ECW Press, 2015. p.86
[2] A booker determines the outcome and finishes of matches for the promoter. They also often work with wrestlers to plan parts of the match.
[3]  "Looking for Mr. Gilbert." YouTube. 1993. Accessed December 14, 2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnW5UjKODdU.
[4]  "Principles and Best Practices." Oral History Association. October 1, 2009. Accessed December 20, 2015. http://www.oralhistory.org/about/principles-and-practices/.
[5] Known as Haku in the WWE and Meng in World Championship Wrestling.
[6] Straight Shootin' with Jim Cornette and Percy Pringle III. Directed by Jim Cornette. Performed by Percy Pringle III. United States: Ring of Honor Productions, 2005. Film.
[7] A wrestler’s status is generally referred to by where they would perform on a show. A “Mid-card” wrestler generally performs in the middle of the show and is a considered a significant personality, but not part of the main event tier of performers.
[8]  Piper, Roddy. "Jake the Snake Roberts." In Piper's Pit. Soundcloud. January 1, 2014. https://soundcloud.com/piperspit/pp-ep6-jake-the-snake-roberts
[9]  Morris, Benjamin. "Are Pro Wrestlers Dying at an Unusual Rate?" DataLab. April 21, 2014. Accessed December 20, 2015. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/are-pro-wrestlers-dying-at-an-unusual-rate/.
[10] Shoemaker, David. The Squared Circle: Life, Death, and Professional Wrestling. New York City, New York: Gotham, 2014.
[11]  Austin, Steve. "Wrestlemania 17 - Stone Cold vs. The Rock." In Steve Austin Show Unleashed. PodcastOne. December 1, 2014. http://podcastone.com/pg/jsp/program/episode.jsp?programID=436&pid=451224
[12] Ring psychology is the technique by which wrestlers tell the story of the match in the ring. Trying to exploit an opponent’s kayfabe weakness or avoid their strengths are examples of ring psychology.
[13] When a wrestler switches from being a face to a heel, usually by betrayal.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

What did I do on my summer vacation? Worked a second job for free.

As some of you might know, I'm currently working at an internship at the Rare Books and Manuscripts Division of the Indiana State Library. Going into the internship, I had more or less no idea what I would be doing for the duration. During my initial interview it sounded like I would be digitizing documents and photos for the majority of my time, which I was OK with, as I never expect work to be particularly exciting.

Fortunately, there turned out to be a lot more to the position than scanning and data entry. My primary responsibility has been the processing and cataloging of collections donated to the Library by individuals. My first collection consisted of thousands of news clippings on the White River Park State Games, so if you're looking for an expert on an amateur sports competition that went defunct in the early 90s, I'm your guy.

My second collection however, titled the John M. Smith Collection after its creator/donater, was incredibly fascinating. Mr. Smith is (Was? I'm unclear on his current state. He was alive in 2011 when the collection was donated) an attorney from Auburn, Indiana who I presume got his undergraduate degree in history and remained interested in the study. His collection of historical documents and artifacts was close to 1000 items, most of them from the late 19th and early 20th century, largely collected during the 1960s throughout the 1980s. Judging by some of the marked prices and invoices included in the collection, I'd say its total worth approaches $10,000.

I've taken photos of some of the more interesting pieces and provided a little light interpretation.





This is a land warrant issued to George Rogers Clark, arguably Indiana's most notable military hero. Clark was to be awarded a cash bounty for the recruitment of his battalion during the Revolution, but forewent the cash and took 550 acres of land in its stead. Keep in mind that at this point Virginia still included West Virginia and Kentucky, which were largely unsettled by white people, so the government had a great deal of land to distribute. This wasn't the only treasury warrant issued to Clark, though I don't know what the final total value of his award was.

As an artifact, the warrant is in excellent condition. The wax seal's survival is particularly unusual.


This is a reproduction of The Chippewanuck Medal. The Medal was discovered in 1872 near the banks of Chippewanuck Creek in Newcastle Township.  On the front is King George III and on the reverse is the Royal Crest of England, old enough to still contain the lilies that represented the Crown's claim on the Kingdom of France, which it relinquished in 1801.

During colonization, many of these medals were created to be given to Indian chiefs at the conclusion of treaty negotiations. This one was more than likely awarded to a Chippewa Chief in Indiana between 1786 and 1796, and was then taken by a Potawatomi warrior after the conclusion of a furious battle over prime hunting grounds. When the Potawatomi were forced to leave the state, the medal was left behind, likely buried with its most recent owner.



In the early 20th century one of the most popular souvenirs for tourists were ready-made photo albums, likely because very few people had the ability to easily take high quality pictures themselves as cameras and their related equipment were still very expensive and cumbersome. The Smith collection contained dozens of these albums from Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Terre Haute, French Lick, Bloomington and New Harmony. The changes over time are most evident in the Indianapolis photos. This 1878 photo is of the Circle in downtown Indianapolis, taken facing north. You can see the steeple of Christs' Church Cathedral at the center of the photograph. At this time, the "Governor's Circle," home of the Governor's Mansion until 1857, was a public commons.  The Soldier's and Sailor's Monument would not be constructed until 1888.


This is a map of Indiana in 1840, easily the oldest map of the state I've seen in person and nearly as old as a map of Indiana State (est. 1816), as opposed to Indiana Territory, can get. The division of counties is very nearly the same as it is today, save for the fact that at this point Indiana still contained an Indian reservation for the Miami and Delaware tribes in what is now Howard, Tipton and eastern Clinton Counties. Shortly after this map was created the last of Indiana's recognized tribes would be forced to move west, freeing this land for white settlement and allowing the last two Indiana counties to be formed in 1844. Initially Howard County was named Richardville County, in honor of Jean Baptiste Richardville, last civil chief of the Miami Indians. Unfortunately, even this small gesture would be done away with just 2 years later, when the county was given the name it holds today in honor of Rep. Tilghman Howard.

You might also be able to make out the word POTAWATAMIE written across several counties in the northwestern part of the state. This was after the tribe had been official removed from the state and sent to Kansas via the Potawatmie Trail of Death, but some members of the tribe remained behind, fugitives from the law. The label on the map is intended to be a warning for travellers through the area.

A few other interesting bits about this map: you can see the importance of the Wabash Valley in this map very clearly. Indianapolis had only been around for 20 years at this point, and while it was a significant city, it was not the transportation hub it is today (Partially because the city founders drastically overestimated the depth of the White River). Instead, in these days before railroads were ubiquitous, the state and country still heavily depended on canals to move people and freight. This made the Wabash River, with its canal connection to the Great Lakes, the main artery of Indiana and contributed greatly to the growth of many of the cities along this route (this is where the "port" in Logansport originates).

Unfortunately, I can't provide a lot of background about this item. It is a "recipe" book from the 1880s from the Benton, Indiana area. However, it isn't a cookbook, but instead is full of medicinal recipes for the treatment of illness in humans and animals. The book was clearly carried around by its original owner for a great deal of time, almost twenty years, and evidently contains the sum of his knowledge when it comes to slaves and liniments. I find this idea, that this book was a closely held personal object to someone for years and years, even more fascinating than the contents themselves.


Transcription of left page: To make Pettit's Eye Salve
Take any quantity of white precipitate mix with three times as much hog's lard.
For inflammation, sore eyes, apply a poultice of scraped turnip.
Sure Cure for Acne:Bore the heart out of Ironwood and put it in rie [sic] whiskey. 




I was surprised by this item, as it's a bit out of place with the rest of the collection. In this picture you can see a large wallet, it's accompanying pocket dictionary and a number of furlough and pass documents for WWI veteran Robert P. Hodge. The wallet was included in the collection just as it was last used in 1918, complete with train ticket stubs, personal notes, receipts and these passes. 


 Here's another one I don't have much (any) information on, but is interesting for the type of item. Tintypes (Actually made of iron, not tin) were one of the earliest methods of photography, coming after the daguerrrotype and ambrotype. One of the primary advantages of the tintype was that it could be captured, developed and given to the customer in a much shorter period of time than previous techniques. While this one has some significant damage, it is in unusually good condition for the medium.







Monday, April 27, 2009

Unsung Heroes: Real-life Rambo, Simo Hayha

America has always been enamored of war heroes, so much so that we have elevated many undeserving people to that status through myth and legend when obvious targets did not present themselves (I'm looking at you, Paul Revere). Since the Vietnam War, however, the idea of praising soldier for their ability to kill the enemy has a fallen far out of favor, and it is only considered OK to glorify war in fiction. It should not be forgotten that war is an agreement to settle disputes on a battlefield, placing your life as less important than the cause you are fighting for. If belief and conviction are attributes to be admired, then the soldier should hold a position of respect and those soldiers that execute their jobs with exceptional skill and incredible tenacity should be lauded as heroes. No soldier has done this with more intensity and skill than Simo Häyhä.


Simo was a soldier in The Winter War, a little-known conflict (to Americans, at least) the began when the Soviet Union invaded Finland in November of 1939, three months after Hitler invaded Poland. Russia was using the West's preoccupation with Hitler to make a grab at conquering Finland, believing its superior numbers and industrial might would crush the Finns quickly, with the West having little strength to argue after their protracted war with Germany. The Russian army's officer corps had been severely weakened in the Stalinist purges of 1937, however, and no one expected the Finns to fight with such determination, cunning and skill. The Finns held off the Russian forces longer than anyone could have imagined, and in the Moscow Peace Treaty Finland gave up only 9% of it's pre-war land and 20% of its industrial capacity, when the USSR expected total domination.


While snipers had existed in the previous century virtually since the advent of rifling1, they had not been an organized military force in Europe until the First World War. They proved extremely cost-effective in that conflict and became a major part of World War II2 . While German and Russian (many of the most successful of of which were women!) snipers have gained a good deal of mainstream acknowledgement (most notably in Enemy at the Gates) the greatest among them still remains largely unknown.


Before entering the military at the age of 20 in 1925 Simo was a farmer and hunter, already recognized as an excellent marksman. Between the start of action on November 30, 1939 and March 13, 1940 Simo racked up 505 confirmed sniper kills of Russian soldiers (unconfirmed kills bring the total to 542) and an additional 200 kills with his submachine gun. Given that he has more kills than another other sniper, and that sniping has the greatest potential for kill counts among infantry positions, this may place him not only as one of the greatest warriors of his time, but among the greatest warriors ever. As if the shear volume of kills wasn't enough (an average of almost 8 kills a day) his methods make the feat even more astounding.


Operating in temperatures ranging from -4 to -40 degrees Fahrenheit Simo stalked his prey in an all-white camouflage suit, earning his name among the Russia troops as “White Death”. He eschewed the use of a scope in favor of his Mosin-Nagant's simple iron sights, to present a lower profile to his enemies and therefore assist in evading detection. He kept snow in his mouth while in position so that his breath would not create vapor and he routinely froze the snow at the front of his position so that his shots would not puff the snow when he fired, giving away his position. This man possessed patience, determination and cunning in unearthly amounts.


Simo was severly injured by a Russian soldier on March 13th, 1940. A bullet hit him in the jaw and, tumbling on impact, removed a large portion of his face. He left the front lines after that, but recovered sufficiently before the end of the war to train new soldiers to fight the Russians. His impact in this capacity is immeasurable. He survived the war and died peacefully at his home in 2002 at the age of 97. When asked how he got so good he replied simply “Practice”.


With the attention we give fictional action stars and soldiers who's acts, while heroic, do not compare to the uncanny abilities of this man; I'm amazed that his actions are virtually unknown in America. No English book has been published about him, let alone a film. Why create a fictional Rambo when one already exists for us in the annals of history? Why has Hollywood not taken the opportunity to remind us that ordinary human beings are capable of incredibly extraordinary things? And while they're at it they can illustrate how a small, unassuming country with no designs on world power can fend off one of the largest military forces on the planet. As much as I love fiction, I want people to know that amazing stories are also found in history books.


1the practice of milling spiraled grooves down the barrel of a gun to improve accuracy

2The Winter War is generally considered part of WWII, as it happened at the same time and on the same continent, though the parties involved and motivations were not the same.


Links

Sniper Hall of Fame

Simo at mosinnagant.net

Wikipedia articles of note:

Winter War

Sniper

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Earth Day Doomsday

Earth Day Doomsday

When people talk about “Saving the planet” they are, in fact, talking about “Saving the human race and a reasonably comfortable way of life.” Even with Human-assisted global warming (Anthropogenic climate change: ACC), acid rain, strip mining, water pollution, toxic waste, nuclear accidents and solid waste proliferation few things that the human race is capable of doing to the planet actually have a great deal of effect in the geological sense.

The Real Ramifications of Global Warming: Waterworld was Wrong?!

Despite the foreboding future of Costner's epically boring film the maximum rise in the Earth's sea levels is about 14 meters. Coastlines would flood, drowning most coastal cities1. The Netherlands and South Florida would be entirely lost to the sea. Large portions of New York and New Jersey would be submerged, and the coastline in the southeast would move miles inland. However, if I showed you an outline map of the world after maximum sea level rise you'd have a hard time telling the difference without direct comparison. Sure, losing these areas would be tragic, but also remember that this amount of change is nearly impossible, as it requires every piece of ice on the planet to melt, and that it would happen gradually. No “Day After Tomorrow” tidal waves wiping out NYC in a single day.

The real danger of ACC is desertification and the drastic shift in the world's climates. The Sahara would grow to dominate half of Africa, the U.S. Great Plains would become a desert, as would much of central Asia. The damage to global food production would be huge and cause civic unrest all over the planet as riots break out and wars to grab resources in areas already plagued with scarcity took place. Even this would eventually balance out, though, as areas that were previously frozen tundra, such as Siberia and Canada, would thaw and become the world's new breadbasket.

So the real danger of ACC is not the damage it would do to the planet, but the damage it would do to our economic and political systems as the distribution of resources changed. The U.S. would be one of the hardest hit, if only because we benefit so favorably from the distribution as it stands today. Russia may actually have the most to gain, as so much of it's land is currently a frozen wasteland, though it would likely have problems with areas that were formerly lightly governed, unproductive provinces realizing they now have the wealth and capacity to go it alone.

Cataclysmic Water pollution: The Sea of Blood

With all the hype surrounding ACC, this much more dangerous and much more permanently damaging phenomenon gets very little press, likely because we understand so little about the balance that constitutes the world's ocean ecosystems. There may be a point in the melting of ice or in the releasing of waste into the oceans, that the entire chemical balance of all of the planets oceans is thrown entirely out of whack, leading to either a massive current change due to salinization levels, or the proliferation of red algae due to rising nutrient (read: human waste) levels. A change in currents would lead to a scenario similar to that of ACC, and would lead to resource wars and world-wide scarcity while adjustments were made to depend on those areas benefiting from such a change.

The result of total algae proliferation (AKA a cataclysmic red tide event) could be a near-complete die out of ocean life, possible the most devastating thing we're capable of doing to the Earth short of an all-out nuclear holocaust. The human population would necessarily shrink drastically due to famine, as 120 million metric tons of food is produced by the ocean each year, and is depended on heavily in the developing world as a major source of protein. This would also take eons for the Earth to correct, effectively hitting a reset button on the development of ocean life.

Neither event, however, will destroy the planet or the human race. Which brings me to the one thing we can do that just might accomplish both.

Nuclear Holocaust: The Candle that Burns Brightest

Here it is, the granddaddy of them all, the Doomsday scenario that was all the rage before ACC came along and stole its thunder: total nuclear annihilation. Keep in mind that I'm not referring to a limited exchange brought on by say, N. Korea or Iran launching a nuke and the major nuclear powers retaliating by turning their country into a glassy plain, I'm talking about a total launch of all payloads currently in operation. While many people believe the event is unlikely to the point of impossibility now that the Cold War is over and science has examined all the ramifications of all out nuclear war (long story short: no one wins), it does stand as the one thing human beings are capable of that could theoretically reduced to Earth to an irradiated ball of dirt.

Oddly enough, the initial conflagration may actually be the least damaging part of the whole sequence. While huge portions of urban population would be vaporized instantly, the vast majority would simply see the mushrooms clouds on the horizon. The real danger to the human race and the planet lies in radiation and dust.

Radiation is capable of some really horrendous things. If you've ever seen pictures of radiation sickness then you know what I mean. But radiations most insidious effect, in terms of the long term survival of the planet, is its ability to damage DNA. It can render both plants and animals infertile, and enough of it could effectively sterilize the planet. It impossible to say if the amount of nuclear radiation we're capable of generating is enough to accomplish this, but its a real enough danger that it stands as the one thing human beings could do to damage the planet so severely that it would virtually have to start over from scratch, with only the lower life forms who's resiliency and simplicity could withstand the damage. Oddly enough, cockroaches are not especially resistant, but fruit flies are.

If the radiation level are not sufficient to render the planet's plant life infertile, then the dust clouds become the most immediate problem. It estimated that a total nuclear war would release 150 Tg (150 X 1012 grams) of dust into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to fall by 68° Fahrenheit in North America and 86° in Eurasia. This in comparison to the last Ice Age being 44.6° cooler than the planet is today. Precipitation would also drop by 45%. Food production all over the planet would likely cease for at least a year, possibly longer, and most of the world's population would die of starvation. The survival of any of the human race would depend on how long the clouds lasted. Earth, however would outlast the clouds, and the surviving plant life would start the cycle anew.

So what could destroy both the human race and the planet entirely? Asteroid impact? Nope. Comet? Nope. There's only one thing I've found:

Gamma-ray Burst: Not Cool

A GBR is a rare sort of supernova that sends jets of Gamma-rays jetting out of it's poles. If one happened near the Earth it may just strip away a large portion (20-50%) of the Ozone layer, exposing everything to unsafe levels of ultraviolet radiation (our current “holes in the Ozone” are depletions of about 5%). But if one of those Gamma-ray jets is pointed right at us, it could be curtains.

A Gamma-ray jet has approximately the same energy as a hypernova, and would expose the planet to more energy than the sun has in our entire existence. If one happened within, say, 1000 light years and hit us directly it would destroy our atmosphere , the seas would boil, cities would melt and all life would be hopelessly irradiated. Even in the deepest gold mines we would be exposed to lethal amounts of radiation.

You might find all this depressing, but it actually makes me strangely optimistic. These GBRs occur approximately 1/100,000 years in any given galaxy, and the only star we can see that might do it and might be pointed at us and might have a clear shot is between 5k and 8k light years away. A direct hit would likely damage the Ozone and create massive amounts of smog, but would be unlikely to expose us to the massive amounts of radiation that would doom all life on the planet. If this is our only concern for complete annihilation, I feel good about those chances. Plus, if there are any sort of laws to the universe, or sentience determining our fate, going out due to such an absurdly unlikely event just seems unfair and anticlimactic.

So what's my point? People often talk about saving the Earth as if they're doing something altruistic, something entirely selfless that they expect no reward for. This is BS. We are not working to save the Earth for the Earth's sake. The Earth was just fine before we came along, our time here as been geologically insignificant, and it will continue on like we were never here if we manage to kill ourselves off. We are working to save the planet for our sake, and for the sake of our way of life. The rewards may not be immediate, but they are our rewards, not the planet's and not the rest of the planet's life (who would probably be happiest if we would just leave it alone entirely). Forget Saving the Earth, it doesn't need our help, Save the Humans.


Links

Flood Maps


What's left to eat? Fish: Net Results

WR 104: A nearby gamma-ray burst?

Massive Salinity Changes In Oceans

Wikipedia entries of note:
Climate change
Supernova
Nuclear Winter
Red tide


1Notable U.S. cities lost to maximum sea level rise:

New York

Portland, ME

Boston

Philadelphia

Baltimore

Virginia Beach

Wilmington

Charleston

Savannah

Jacksonville

Daytona

Fort Lauderdale

Miami

Tampa

New Orleans

Long Beach

Sacramento (What?! Apparently Sacramento lies in a basin that the San Fransisco bay will spill into. Huh.)

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Investigation: 2012

Investigation: 2012

Apocalypse, cataclysm, Armageddon, the end of the world. These events are predicted almost every year, sometimes even weekly. The next predicted date for the end of our age has thousands of people either hopeful, concerned or frightened. Maybe you've heard about it, maybe you haven't. Either way it will soon become a part of the lexicon with the release of a major motion picture this year. It’s coming: 2012.

A Tibetan monk ascends to his mountaintop temple in the Himalayas to ring a bell. His eyes widen as he raises them to the horizon. A huge tidal wave looms over the highest mountain range on the planet, threatening to crash down and devastate the environment. Similar devastation awaits the rest of the planet... 2012 trailer

Wait a second! Where on Earth is all of this coming from? What makes people think that the world is going to come to an abrupt end on December 21nd 2012? Climatic projections? Astronomers tracking an asteroid on a collision course with Earth? Economists predicting a total collapse of the trade network? The Bible? Nostradamus? Astrology? An ancient calendar that ends abruptly and somewhat arbitrarily on that date?

The Mayan Calendar

So what is the root of all this speculation? Believe it or not it finds its source in the calendar of a civilization that collapsed before Europeans ever set foot in the New World. The Mayan Calendar is divided into K'in (days), Winal (20 days), Tun (360 days), K'atun (7,200 days) and B'ak'tun (144,000 days). 0.0.0.0.1 represents day one on the Mayan Calendar (August 12, 3114 BCE in the Gregorian calendar).

This itself isn't significant. Calendars have been created by several civilizations with knowledge of astronomy in the past. The Mayan calendar has become a portent of doom because the Mayans believed that we exist in the fourth world (or world of the Fourth Sun in some translations) and that a transition to the Fifth World will take place between 12.19.19.17.19 (December 20, 2012) and 13.0.0.0.0 (December 21, 2012) on their calendar.

What the Mayans actually believed would happen on this date is unclear, as inscriptions are hard to come by and translation is a tricky business. The most complete and understood inscription comes from a monument in the Tortuguero archaeological site in Chiapas, Mexico, that scholars agree refers to the descent of the god B'olon 'Ok, the Mayan deity of war, conflict and the underworld. This seems like a negative event to our modern western sensibilities but the Mayan character for descent or “coming down” was often used in a positive connotation in dedications. It is also clear that the Mayans did not believe the world would cease to exist on this date, as they referred to dates past it and considered the changing of an age an event to be celebrated.

However, civilizations have portended the end of the world or the coming of a new age almost since civilization began and the Mayans didn't seem to be particularly adept soothsayers (they didn't see the fall of their civilization coming, for instance) so why has this date become the source of such hysteria? Part of it is the age and mystery surrounding the calendar, part of it is opportunists attaching their pet cataclysm to the Mayans, and part of it is the coinciding of a few astronomical and astrological events to roughly this time period. Lets start with the astronomical events, or things perceived as such.

Astronomy & Astrology: 2012

Galactic Alignment of the Solar System: This is the idea that the plane of the solar system will be precisely lined up with the galactic plane on 12-21-2012. This is completely false. This event occurs every 33 million years or so, and evidence points to it last occurring about 3 million years ago or so, so it's not due for quite a while.

Alignment of the sun to the Galactic Center (as viewed from Earth): The precise alignment actually occurred during the winter solstice of 1998, and the sun will remain roughly aligned to the Galactic Center for 36 years after that date. Also, the event is only a visual phenomenon from Earth and holds no scientific relevance (i.e. no increased radiation, heat, gamma rays or any such nonsense)

The Age of Aquarius: Whew! Good luck wading through all of the ideas about this time period and when it will either begin or end, or what it even means! An Astrological Age is determined by what constellation of the Zodiac the Sun appears in during the vernal equinox, and the current age effects the development of the Earth and its people. For example, the Age of Leo is associated with the warming of the Earth and the melting of the glaciers, the Age of Cancer with domestication of animals and the Great Floods of myth, the Age of Gemini with the invention of writing, and so on. Due to the irregularities of these constellations the exact measurement of an age is difficult to determine. The Age of Aquarius's starting dates range from the 15th to 37th centuries and it will last approx. 2,150 years. It's generally accepted among the Astrological community that the prior Age, the Age of Pisces, started within 100 years of the birth of Christ, so by that reckoning the new age will start roughly between 2050 and 2250, not exactly close to 12-21-12. Astrologers generally agree that the Age will be marked with the fall of religion and the rise of rational thought, but that's where the agreement ends. It could certainly be argued that this transition is already taking place, astrologers point to The Reformation, The Enlightenment , or The Industrial Revolution as indicators of the new Age, though offical astronomical calculations place its start in the 24th century. Consenus will likely not be reached without the benefit of a great deal of hindsight.

Planet X, Nibiru or Marduk: A theory based on mistranslations of ancient Sumerian texts that states that a previously unknown planet or brown dwarf star passes close to the Earth every 3600 years. Some theories state that the planet is inhabited, the source of the “Greys” that have visited us more an more often recently, while others make the more sane assertion that the passing body's gravity or radiation will have disasterous effects on the planet. The theory is not supported by newer translations or any astronomical data. Once proposed to arrive in 2003 by the nut that runs Zeta Talk, they've revised their new date to be 2012, pretty much because it just sounds good. Even the original theorist, Zecharia Sitchin, who was tranlations have been proven to be woefully wrong and his interpretation of artifacts and symbols to be entirely off the mark doesn't expect its return for another 1000 years. Some folks are even attaching the words of Nostradamus, that font of end-times theories that fail to come true, to this event. Man, you just gotta Google this one for all the absurd wildly divergent theories on it, it’s good for a laugh.

Potentially Hazardous Near Earth Object: While 30% of our stellar neighborhood remains unscanned, no object is projected to come close to hitting the Earth until 2880, when the asteroid 1950 DA has a 1:300 chance of colliding with the Earth. While a real danger, it's certainly not going to make a 870 year jump just to prove some people right.

Ecology & The Environment : 2012

Pole Shift: Some of you from the “Sightings” crowd might remember this one from 5/5/95 theory that preyed on our X-files addled adolescent brains. It goes like this: the ice accumulation at the poles will cause the Earth to become unbalanced and it will tip 90 degrees. Completely discredited, with little evidence to back it up in the first place. It seems even more unlikely with the current depletion of Polar ice.

Supervolcano: Recently posed by Discovery and the BBC as a possible Doomsday scenario is the eruption of the supervolcano that currently resides under Yellowstone national park. While the eruption is theoretically long overdue, things are often delayed thousands of years on the geological time scale. Fortunately an eruption of this magnitude will likely require centuries of build up and will almost certainly have years, decades or possibly centuries of warnings leading up to the event. Another real threat that could theoretically happen any day, nothing shows that it will happen on 12-21-12.

Geomagnetic Reversal: An event that may be the origin of the “pole shift” theory, but with actual evidence of its occurrence in the past, and a scientific certainty that it will happen again. The phenomenon itself happens when the Earth's magnetic field weakens to the point that it temporarily winks out of existence, only to return shortly thereafter, having randomly determined which pole is “north” and which is “south”. Unfortunately we know so little about the behavior of Earth's magnetic field that we have no way of predicting this occurrence. The Field does seem to have weakened since we started measuring such things (a very insignificant period in geological time) , and while it doesn't seem to be weakening to the point that it would temporarily fall, we don't know when that point might be. We also aren't sure what this fall and realignment might mean to us on Earth. It might allow stellar radiation to bombard us or it may wreak havoc on weather patterns. It will almost certainly do some negative things to electronics. Certainly a major event, possibly even cataclysmic if modern electronics are disrupted or all electronic data is corrupted, though unlikely to be “world-ending” as it has happened before in human history. Nothing tells us it's going to happen in 2012, but it is one of the few “possible” candidates.

Climatic Tipping Point: Being the theory that at a certain point in time anthropogenic global warming (AGW) will reach a point that human efforts will find impossible to reverse. Assuming that AGW is a real phenomenon (there is still some dissent) this point may have already happened or could happen at any moment. Either way, it will be impossible to determine when it happened except in hindsight as its effects could take centuries to attract notice. Could happen on 12-21-12, but no one will realize it.

Peak Oil Day: The day that oil production reaches its peak, and declines steadily afterwards. Originally theorized to happen in 1970, the day has been repeatedly delayed by rises in supply and drops in demand, such as the shift to more fuel efficient cars in the '80s. Some people theorize that this already occurred in 2006, leading to the recent surge in oil prices, others theorize that it will happen soon or within the next 50 years. Some people expect the day to be marked with massive strife and warfare, but these consequences lessen the more energy demand has been shifted to other supplies. This could certainly occur on 12-21-12, but with the economic recession and recent rise in awareness of the finite supply of oil more and more systems are shifting to alternate fuel source, further delaying Peak Day.

Religion & Spirituality: 2012

Global consciousness shift: Ranging from Jose Arguelles' and Daniel Pinchbeck's theories of humans spontaneously rising to a new level of enlightenment to the Global Scenario Group's (GSG) “Planetary Phase of Civilization” concept, many sources believe that the human race is headed for a completely new societal structure. While Jose and Daniel believe this will be accompanied by a sudden shift in human understanding and mental faculties (ESP! mind bullets!) precisely on 12-21-12, the GSG's Planetary Phase of Civilization states that global society will make a shift from a world of capitalist nations and consumerist states into a more interconnected society of global institutions, ubiquitous information technology and coresponding shifts in culture and consciousness. The GSG believes that this will be a shift akin to the transition out of the Stone Age, or into the Modern Era. I don't think many will argue that the Human race is making a transition from the era of nation-states and human vulnerability to the environment (as opposed to the other way around), there's no reason to believe that this transition will happen suddenly on a single day.

Christian End Times: Ah, the Coming of Christ, that familiar fall back in the doom-sayer repertoire. Honestly, with it being promised every year, if there's any truth to it they'll eventually get it right. Some vague biblical prophecies have supposedly come true: the re-establishment of the Jewish state, a united European state, and climate change leading to “tribulation events.” But Jesus himself gives us the final word on trying to peg down a specific date: "Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words shall not pass away. But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone." Matthew 24:35-36

Science & Technology: 2012

The Technological Singularity: This one is my personal favorite, and while a specific date for it is impossible to pin down, its occurrence is becoming a popular scientific and pseudo-scientific theory. The scientific one goes like this: technological innovations are occurring at an exponentially accelerating rate and while the specific algorithm has yet to be pinned down (though several have tried) they all end at a point where technology advances at the same rate that time passes, essentially at a rate inconceivable by human beings. This would happen because of a great leap in intelligence available, either through seed AI (an artificial intelligence capable of improving itself) or through augmentation of human intelligence through cybernetics, gene therapy or drugs. Most theorists put the date for this change at somewhere between 2005 and 2050. The pseudo-scientific theory, generally referred to as Timewave Zero and originally proposed by Terrence McKenna, constructs the algorithm with data from the I Ching, which McKenna then manipulated to give the end date of 12-21-12. While no scientific data gives any specific date, it does seem that the world is headed towards this point, which could lead from anything to Robot Apocalypse to a Utopia, or simply a different age of history with old problems solved and new problems created.

Being a fan of The Apocalypse (Bring on the zombies! As long as they aren't those freaking scary ones from 28 Days Later.) I honestly went into this investigation hoping to find some truth behind one of these theories of sudden, cataclysmic destruction. Having only found evidence for geomagnetic reversal, the climatic tipping point, Peak Oil Day and the Technological Singularity happening anywhere close to this date, and with none of these even having sufficient evidence to point to a specific year, let alone a single day, I was left a little disappointed. All of this has raised another question in my mind though: Why do so many people portend a sudden, violent end to our world on a yearly basis? My guess is that they're looking for an easy way out. A sudden end is much simpler than a slow decline caused by global environmental degradation, trade collapse and widespread warfare.

Sources and Reference:

The Mayan Calendar:

Finley's Mayan calendar notes, including a "today's date in Mayan" calculator

Tortuguero

Astronomical Events:

S. Tonkin's atronomical calculations

Age of Aquarius

ZetaTalk

Zecharia Sitchin's errors

List of Potentially Hazarous Objects

Ecological Events:

Hutton's Pole Shift Articles

S.Mewhinney: "Kerplop"

Discovery Channel's Virtual Supervolcano

Scientific American's “Secrets of Supervolcanos”

G. Glatzmaier: The Geodynamo

The Washington Post on Climatic Tipping Point

Whatispeakoil.com

Religion & Spirituality:

Arguelles' Galactic Research Institute

Pinchbeck's Blog

Global Scenario Group

Christian End Times projected dates

Science and Technology:

Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

Timewave Zero

Terence McKenna Land

Online Timewave Zero Calculator

Up Next: “Investigation: Fluoridation”